Vol. 8 No. 1 (2023)
La Revue Internationale des Économistes de Langue Française
Published:
30-06-2023
Articles
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Contribution of mathematical models and big data for company decision-making; the case of epidemiological events such as SARS-CoV-2 in the health area in Chile
The pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus has given rise to numerous analyses and studies due to the implications and serious consequences it has had on all areas of human development worldwide. The data unquestionably reflect the degree of impact it has had, not only on the mortality rate, but also on the economic indices of nations. In analysing all these indicators, the question arises as to whether some key elements, such as the number of incidences, the variables of the effective reproductive factor of the disease could better reflect the predictability of the cases and, in turn, evaluate the mitigating measures to placate the incidence of new cases. This analysis is especially significant considering that the pandemic is not over, and that more and better resolutions are still needed to address this ongoing crisis. In this context, the present study aims to analyse, from the theoretical mathematical models, what has been the contribution of this area of science to find and predict possible solutions to quell the effects of this global pandemic. For this purpose, statistical analyses based on three models will be used : non-linear phenomenological models, data modeling and the generalised logistic model, which are expected to contribute to a better evaluation and understanding of the measures taken to face this health crisis and, in the future, the importance of understanding the use of data and the technological tools available to mankind today in the face of any new virus.(original abstract)
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Meta-Biplot as a measure of social protection variables for European and Latin American countries
Within the framework of Social Security, pension systems are a social protection mechanism whose purpose is to provide income to people who lose their self-generating capacity due to old age (old-age rights and benefits), disability (disability rights and benefits), or death of one of the primary sources of income of a family (survivors ' rights and benefits). Social protection systems occupy a prominent place in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations, which is reflected in its goal 1.3, where it is urged to implement social protection systems and increment the coverage of the vulnerable population. In terms of social security, European countries have the most experience. Latin America has been one of the forerunners in introducing individual capitalization schemes as a mandatory component in its pension systems for more than 30 years. When Chile abandoned its pay-as-you-go pension system for an individual capitalization system, several countries in Latin America and Europe followed that path. With well-designed and implemented social protection systems, countries can strengthen human capital, improve productivity, reduce inequalities, strengthen resilience, and end the cycle of intergenerational poverty.(original abstract)
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Real-time short-term forecast of COVID-19 epidemic in Cuba using model averaging
In the absence of reliable information about transmission mechanisms of an emerging infection, simple phenomenological models can provide an early assessment of the potential scope of outbreaks in near real- time. Early prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for ongoing COVID-19 epidemic can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. A variety of nonlinear models have been developed to model reported cumulative cases in infectious disease outbreak (e.g., Richards, logistic, Gompertz models). All these models could fit epidemic data well in order to obtain real-time short-term forecasts. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this paper, we conduct a real-time prediction for the final size, turning point of the outbreak, and also generate 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case using several nonlinear models in which these parameters are estimated via model averaging. The proposed method is applied to COVID-19 epidemic data in 2020 Cuba outbreak.(original abstract)
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Citriculture in Chilean agricultural communities : Towards a sustainable development
: This review article aims to comment on the importance of citrus in the agricultural communities of the Limarí Province from the perspective of achieving sustainable agricultural development in these communities, highlighting the results of a pilot experience with rural citrus growers. Firstly, the state of development of citriculture in Chile is described. Secondly, this activity is treated from the perspective of the agricultural communities of Limarí. Thirdly, a report results of a pilot study on citrus culture developed in the agricultural community are explained. This work shows how attractive the citrus sector has become for agricultural communities, especially the commercialization of the typical yellow lemon. It also highlights the need to implement agri-environmental education programs among their inhabitants to promote the care of critical natural resources such as water and soil. The growth and development of citrus farming in Limarí's agricultural communities must be consistent with an analysis of the availability of these resources and responsible use of them. (original abstract)
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Elaboration and approbation of a subject-oriented global intellectual capital index for comparative cross-country analysis
Nowadays learning, training, innovations and digitalization became key driving factors of the development. In these conditions intellectual capital becomes one of the basic elements formatting economic competitiveness. Assuming that the intellectual capital complies the achievement of the majority of Sustainable Development Goals carrying out complex assessment of intellectual capital plays a particular interest. The study is dedicated to elaboration of the methodology for calculating the global integral indicator to assess the level of intellectual capital that could be used for cross-country comparative analysis. The authors present their suggestions on the elements of the index, content and structure itself of intellectual capital at the macro level ; elaboration of a system of statistical indicators for assessing the state and development of intellectual capital based on the analysis and synthesis of the available data, considering international experience in the context of innovative development ; development of a global integral index of intellectual capital for cross-country comparisons. The results of express analysis based on the short-list of indicators are presented as well, highlighting leaders and laggards in 2016 and 2020.(original abstract)
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Logistic model of desertion using regression and decision tree techniques for resource allocation efficiency : The case of a Chilean private university
When education has become a fundamental right that must be maintained and consolidated, a problem arises that has given rise to numerous academic discussions and that seeks to consider holistically and critically the phenomenon of the growing massification of training offers, manifested in the exponential increase in access to postgraduate studies. Some approaches postulate that, not only is it necessary to implement policies to increase access coverage, but it is also necessary to address the quality of education, considering desertion and retention. In this context, this research aims to establish an analytical model that allows the development of retention and the prevention of the causes of desertion. For this purpose, we will use the methodology of supervised learning to determine the variables of analysis through regression techniques and a decision tree, creating a logistic model of desertion, capable of improving the efficiency in the destination of resources. Finally, this work will aim to provide a better understanding of the phenomena associated with the desertion and retention of students, to help in the management and decision-making process by institutions of higher education.(original abstract)
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Price/demand elasticity model from the Bayesian approach : The case of a Chilean retail company
This project presents data from a Chilean retail firm to model elasticity from a Bayesian perspective. Elasticity measures the behavior of products based on price and demand. It can be obtained through linear regressions of the logarithm of prices and units sold. The problem arises with discounts, special days, etc. This temporal relationship causes biases in the estimates that the company compensates for by performing a chain of regressions. Bayesian statistics fixes a distribution for the parameters, and then, with plausibility, uses Bayes' rule to obtain a posteriori distribution. The project uses an a priori NormalGamma-Inverse to specify the linear regression model. For the application, we obtain the line level elasticities through the classical model and the product elasticities with the Bayesian model, incorporating the line information. Through a t-test we conclude that the average of the chain elasticities does not differ from those obtained by the Bayesian model. Therefore, by complementing the two points of view, we obtain good results that can be used in trade.(original abstract)
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Model for characterizing the quality situation of Chilean universities based on financial and management indicators
One of the most significant indicators of the effectiveness of quality assurance systems is the accreditation process of higher education institutions, as these processes consider a variety of essential elements when certifying the quality of the processes carried out in training institutions. In this context, the present research aims to generate a model of characterization, evolution and projection of the accreditation situation of Chilean universities that are attached to the Higher Education Information System (SIES). For them, a methodology of quantitative exploratory correlational and predictive approach is used that considers 56 different Chilean higher education institutions, catalogued as universities ; and their respective indicators published between 2017 and 2021 by the Higher Education Information System (SIES) that allowed the generation of the model based on the evolution of the consolidated indicators, which yielded the information of value concerning the fields of greatest relevance in the results of the accreditation process. In this way, the research seeks to become a model that contributes to the strategic planning of universities to achieve higher quality in their processes and, consequently, a greater number of years of accreditation.(original abstract)
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Competition in the Retail Distribution of Liquid Fuels : Exploring the Spatial Dimension
This work aims to study the level of spatial competition among the existing gas stations in the retail distribution market of liquid fuels, based on the comparative analysis of their geospatial positioning and their influence and price variations in the national market. In the case of Chile, the industry is characterized by a high concentration in the number of suppliers and vertical integration with the wholesale distribution, transportation and storage segments, which makes the competitive analysis important. In addition, there is a great differentiation of products in terms of geographical location, which makes spatial analysis essential. Thus, we first analyzed the impact of the number of nearby stations, the same network, and a rival or independent network. The results are configured according to two approaches. The first one concludes that the numerical results are consistent in the price dynamics and territorial positioning of the stations, as it appears that independent stations have a negative effect on the price level within a 20-minute radius, with an average network-action of 0.19%. Likewise, there is a greater impact on the distribution of 93-octane gasoline and diesel than on 97-octane gasoline, as the diesel and 93-octane segments are the most competitive in the industry, and in the context where independent stations participate the most. In the second model, the results show the dominant role of the Copec company : this network has the greatest negative influence on the price level of its rivals. As in the first model, the results vary by fuel type, with the role of the 97-octane gasoline networks being the most important. Results are heterogeneous at the regional level, higher in densely populated geographic areas compared to southern areas and far from major urban centers.(original abstract)
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Estimating Countries Preparedness and Vulnerability for the Covid-19 Pandemic : Elaboration and Approbation of Overall Index
Due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its social-economic consequences, the estimation role of preparedness and vulnerability has risen significantly. This paper complements existing investigations in the field of international comparisons and multidimensional rankings, presenting the results of a complex evaluation of the national level of preparedness and vulnerability in terms of pandemics based on the multidimensional index proposed by the authors. The main objective of the proposed research was to estimate the national level of preparedness and vulnerability for the pandemic from a complex point of view. An overall multidimensional index was calculated and used for complying countries' ranking based on the elaborated methodology. The proposed index allowed the authors to conclude that there is a significant difference in the overall level of preparedness for a pandemic and disproportion between certain system elements for each country. Analysis of existing databases, open sources, and reports highlighted the necessity to extend the existing list of indicators to evaluate the level of vulnerability. The expediency of using the proposed index is proved by the statistical correlation analysis between subindexes and the level of morbidity and mortality due to the COVID-19. The proposed overall index is used for multidimensional grouping and cluster analysis to estimate the economic consequences of the pandemic. The results of the cluster analysis allowed creating four groups of the countries, namely : (1) highly vulnerable countries with a low level of preparedness ; (2) countries with a low level of preparedness and vulnerability ; (3) countries with a high level of preparedness and vulnerability ; (4) countries with a low level of vulnerability and a high level of preparedness. The comparative analysis of economical outcomes (such as annual change of GDP in 2020-2019 to average annual GDP change for 2019-2017), unemployment rate change, and inflation change presented in the research highlighted disproportions of the pandemic influence by country's groups.(original abstract)
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Evolution of Economic Freedom in the Countries of South America and the European Union During the Years 1996-2022
The objective of the article is to describe and evaluate the evolution of economic freedom in the countries of South America and the European Union in the years 1996-2022. The basis of inference are the coefficients of economic freedom published since 1995 by The Heritage Foundation in Washington and Wall Street Journal for 184 countries around the world. The comparative analysis is carried out by country and in three sub-groups, which are : the countries of South America, the European countries which joined the European Union before 2003 (EU1) and after 2003 (EU2). In the empirical research, correlation, σ-convergence, σ-divergence and multivariate comparative analysis methods are used. The R program and the dtw and dtwclust packages are also applied. Accordingly, an in-depth assessment of the evolution of economic freedom was carried out in the 41 countries assessed, as well as separately in the three groups of countries analysed. It has been shown that in terms of economic freedom, EU1 countries outperform EU2 and South American countries. In conclusion, general remarks are presented on the relationship between the stages of changes in economic freedom and the institutional reforms aimed at a more complete democratization of countries and the development of a modern market economy.(original abstract)
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Economic Convergence within the West African Space: Regional Economic Integration Put to the Test of Facts
In this article we first propose a discussion in the light of recent works on the economic convergence or not of West African countries which have been in the process of regionalization of trade since 1975. We then examine the determinants of convergence based on the spatial econometric analysis of all these States over the period 1990-2021. The results obtained show that the economies are globally and highly divergent ; the absolute and conditional convergences not being realized. But three convergence clubs have been identified, with Senegal standing apart. The investment rate, public expenditure, inflation rate, purchasing power parity, trade openness rate, school enrolment rate and population growth rate, as structural control variables, played an important role in assessing the speed and level of divergence of West African economies. This has highlighted the differences in per capita income, the delay in the integration mechanisms and the effects of the shocks to which these economies are subject.(original abstract)
