Vol. 2 No. 1 (2017)
La Revue Internationale des Économistes de Langue Française
Published:
30-06-2017
Articles
-
Determinants of Stock Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
The objective of this study is to investigate the determinants of stock market development in Sub-Saharan Africa. For this purpose, nine stock markets in the region were studied and market capitalization as a percentage of GDP was used as an indicator of stock market development. To achieve the objective, a Vector Auto-Regression Model (VAR) in the Panel was used to account for the interdependence between the stock market, economic growth and the banking market. The results revealed that the economic growth rate, delayed market capitalization by one lag, money supply as a percentage of GDP, inflation rate, stock market turnover rate and the degree of trade openness are the determinant of stock market development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, the study showed that there is a mutual causality between the three spheres: stock market, banking market and economic growth.(original abstract)
-
Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performance in Africa: which Lessons to Be Drawn for WAEMU Countries?
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the influence of the exchange rate regime on macroeconomic performance in order to draw lessons for WAEMU countries where fixed exchange policy characterizes the monetary regime. For this, a panel data estimation using the generalized method of moments (GMM) system was adopted and carried out on 32 countries to assess the impact of exchange rate regimes on macroeconomic performance during the 1980-2010 period. Th e results show that the fixed exchange regime is better than fl exible and intermediate exchange regimes to maintain low and stable inflation through discipline effect rather than credibility effect. Furthermore, growth in fixed exchange regime countries is lower than in all more flexible exchange regime countries. Specifically, these fixed exchange regime countries seem to record growth rate lower than countries in intermediate exchange regime. As for the associated flexible exchange regime coefficient is positive and significant. It reflects that countries with flexible exchange regime may have growth rate higher than countries in intermediate exchange regime. Th e implication to be drawn for WAEMU countries is that the search for a domestic nominal anchor would maintain inflation at low and stable levels while improving growth performance.(original abstract)
-
Macroeconomic Aggregates and Investment Fluctuations: the Example of WAEMU Countries
Th is article provides an assessment of the impact of changes in macroeconomic aggregates on the investment of the WAEMU countries. Th e study is based on structural modeling of unobserved components likely to highlight the links between investment and macroeconomic variables. The results suggest the recurrence of negative impacts on investment. Macroeconomic aggregates (GDP, inflation, savings) exert a pro-cyclical behavior on the investment. On the other hand, fiscal balance is countercyclical following the different phases of investment cycle. Business investment should be a priority of national fiscal policies in the member countries of the Union for sustainable economic development.(original abstract)
-
Analysis if the Impact of Migration and Remittances on the Communities of Origin of Migrants in Mali: the Case of the Locality of Yélémané
Th is study seeks to examine the impact of migration and remittances on the communities of origin of migrants. Th is is based on a model of simultaneous equations inspired by the theory of the new economy of labor migration (NEMT), using data from a survey carried out in 2014 on 160 households in 9 villages of the locality of Yélémané which is one of the main areas of departure for Malian migrants. Th e study showed that the number of migrants and agricultural production are negatively correlated. On the other hand, remittances have a positive impact on agricultural and non-agricultural production. In addition to their positive effects on productive investment and the ability to adopt capital-intensive technologies, remittances have a positive and significant effect on the food, health and education expenditures of households benefiting from them. These results show that remittances from migration contribute signifi cantly to improving the living conditions of migrant families in this area.(original abstract)
-
Agricultural Productivity in the WAEMU Countries: Decomposition in Technical Efficiency and in Technological Change
Th is article analyzes the growth of the total productivity of factors of the agricultural sector in the WAEMU countries. DEA method was used to measure the indices of Malmquist (1953) of the total factor productivity with panel data for the period 1990-2014. Th e results show, on one hand, a greater contribution of technological change to agricultural productivity and, on the other hand, a stronger infl uence of the efficiency scale compared to the technical efficiency.(original abstract)
-
Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: the Assessment of the Polish Experience (1995-2015)
The aim of this paper is to assess the Polish monetary policy experience between 1995Q1 and 2014Q4 in the light of the three equation new Keynesian model estimated with Bayesian econometrics. Our results show that the National Bank of Poland has performed relatively well in stabilizing activity and infl ation as the results observed are very close to the ones obtained under either an aggressive simple interest rule.(original abstract)
-
Eurozone Between Optimality, Viability and Perennity
The Euro area cannot certainly be considered as an optimum currency area but is this determinant to propose to bring it to an end and to come-back to national currencies ? Th e euro area showed that it could be considered as a viable monetary area as it exists since more than 15 years. Th e aim of this article is to know if it could be perennial and to do so on which bases its functionning could be enhanced.(original abstract)
-
Debate on the Economic and Monetary Integration in Europe: the Case of Portugal
Th e European economic and monetary integration of Portugal should be analyzed from a historical perspective, taking into account not only economic but also political aspects. Despite its colonial heritage, Portugal is a country of emigrants in which Europe holds a very important part. Portuguese people have a European feeling they do not forget a dictatorship that has lasted almost half a century. The incomes of Portuguese are nowadays much higher as also the level of fixed capital - especially in infrastructure - and human capital than before European integration. The recent economic problems of the Portuguese economy are the result of imbalances that developed during the years aft er the Democratic Revolution. The absence of more appropriate policies for a monetary zone with a fi xed exchange rate and with financial shocks caused by the reduction of interest rates and the massive entry of structural funds is responsible for the poor performance of the Portuguese economy aft er 2002. At present the banking crisis and public debt do not allow the exit of the Euro. But in spite of this constraint Portuguese governments and the great majority of the political parties envisage a deeper integration in the monetary union.(original abstract)
-
Réflexions sur l'hypertrophie de la politique monétaire conduite par la Banque Centrale Européenne
Réaction inquiétante d'un expert ayant assumé de lourdes responsabilités dans l'ordre monétaire international et européen1. D'autant que ce trouble est assez largement ressenti et, souvent, exprimé en termes beaucoup moins nuancés. Certains n'hésitent pas, en eff et, à dénoncer une folie collective des banques centrales [Artus et Virard 2016]. Les banquiers centraux, hier technocrates inconnus, seraient devenus les nouveaux maîtres du monde. On compterait, aujourd'hui, sur leurs interventions pour faire repartir la croissance, combattre la défl ation, résoudre les problèmes d'endettement des États, empêcher l'éclatement de la zone euro. Depuis 2008, ces banquiers centraux auraient cherché à éviter un désastre pire que celui de 1929 en injectant des milliers de milliards d'euros dans l'économie. Mais, en inondant de liquidités l'économie mondiale, ils l'auraient plongée dans une crise fi nancière géante où chaque secousse serait suivie de répliques toujours plus désastreuses. La Banque centrale européenne (BCE) est-elle atteinte par cette folie des banques centrales ? Sa politique nous conduit-elle vers l'abîme de doutes évoqué par Jacques de Larosière?(fragment tekstu)
-
Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Cycle Growth Volatility and Economic Growth: the Case of Lebanon
This paper analyses the evolution of the growth cycle and volatility in Lebanon during the period of 1970-2015. First, GDP growth observed over its potential level is determined by taking into account the break dates coinciding with conflict and political instability. Th en, an estimation of the impact of conflict on the output gap volatility is held to analyze the causal relationship between this same volatility and growth. It turned out that contrary to what is suggested by the literature, it is economic growth that explains the volatility of economic cycles.(original abstract)
-
Lecture d'ouvrage: Bismans F., La Grande Récession - Un autre regard sur des temps troublés (2007-2013), L'Harmattan, Paris 2016, 240 pp.
Ce livre ne devrait laisser personne indifférent même s'il suscitera des avis éventuellement contradictoires chez un même lecteur selon ses préoccupations du moment. Quant à l'appréciation générale que nous pouvons émettre, elle devra être nuancée, voire opposée, selon ce que l'on recherche... Il n'est pas sûr de ce point de vue que le titre suffi se pour nous renseigner car il n'est pas certain qu'il s'agisse véritablement d'un autre regard, ou du moins on ne comprend pas bien par rapport à quelle(s) référence(s) il y a nouveauté. En revanche, la précision, la connaissance du sujet et les nombreuses sources documentaires sont bien là et comme tout cela est servi par de réelles qualités pédagogiques, cet ouvrage doit être recommandé à tous ceux qui s'intéressent aux crises fi nancières qui ont meurtri l'ensemble du monde de 2007 à 2013, et lu par quiconque, y compris s'il n'est pas un spécialiste de ces questions, souhaite comprendre de façon argumentée comment les événements se sont enchainés.(fragment tekstu)
-
Motivations for Developing Renewable Energy and Solar Energy : Panel Cointegration Approach
The threats posed by global warming issues have prompted European governments to accelerate their energy transition and increase their electricity production from renewable energies (Renewable Energy). The deployment of renewables energy in Europe is however heterogeneous according countries and this growth of renewables is likely to be driven by some macroeconomic variables previously analysed in the literature (CO2 emissions, national income, energy consumption and energy dependency, oil price dynamics). In this article, we show using panel fixed effects estimator that econometric results outlined in the previous literature are robust using our new data set by considering all sources of renewables energy. However, we also show that previous papers seem to have neglected the presence of nonstationary and cointegration issues when we assess the relationship between renewables and its drivers. Using suitable cointegrating estimators (DOLS, FMOLS), we relativise the scope of the results usually identified in the literature. By conducting the same analysis for the particular case of solar energy, we show that this particular type of energy, as suggested by a scarce literature, does not react as strongly to the main macroeconomic determinants as the renewables energy as a whole. Panel estimates using fi xed eff ects and panel estimators adapted to the presence of cointegration lead to the same conclusion that only the level of energy dependency is really a major driver in the decision of the governments to produce solar energy.(original abstract)
-
Le grand retour du politique dans la finance?
Depuis la crise de Lehman Brothers, plusieurs G7 et G20 avaient été consacrés, en partie ou en totalité, à re-réguler les circuits fi nanciers internationaux. Le constat était à la fois simple et terrifi ant: la contagion de la crise des sub-primes avait mis en place une déstabilisation majeure de la finance internationale, entraînant par ricochet dans la récession le commerce international mais, également et conjointement, les économies nord-américaines et européennes ainsi que celles de nombreux Etats émergents.(fragment tekstu)
-
Les grandes restructurations industrielles recentes : mise en echec ou accomplissement de la concurrence?
En tout observateur attaché à la réalisation de l'idéal concurrentiel, les grandes restructurations industrielles, et notamment les fusions géantes, ne peuvent manquer de susciter un malaise. La logique fi nancière menace de s'y substituer à la logique industrielle, et le pouvoir de marché semble y dériver vers le pouvoir de monopole. Alors la tentation de renoncer à l'impératif concurrentiel est forte. Sous sa forme rare, cette renonciation conduirait à interdire pratiquement toute fusion pour bloquer tout accroissement de pouvoir de marché au profit de firmes présumées tentaculaires. Sous sa forme « ultralibérale », hayékienne, imbue de Chicago, la renonciation porte au contraire sur la défense de la dispersion du pouvoir de marché, abandonnée à une dynamique spontanée qui n'est rien moins qu'évidente.(fragment tekstu)
