Déterminants macroéconomiques et monétaires du chômage dans les pays de l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (UEMOA)

Abstract

The main objective of this article is to bring out the short and long-term macroeconomic and institutional determinants of unemployment in the WAEMU countries. Starting from panel unit root and cointegration tests, this article uses an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL). The results show that, in the short term, the inflation rate, the exchange rate and government stability explains the level of unemployment in the WAEMU countries, but in the long term labor productivity, inflation, public spending, corruption and democratic accountability are the main determinants of unemployment in the WAEMU countries. These results confirm the Phillips curve that predicts a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short term and support the thesis of Friedman (1968) and Phelps (1968) that there is no trade-off between inflation and the unemployment. (original abstract)